09 October 2004

Electoral Votes: Kerry 280, Bush 248

Electoral-Vote.com says that if the election were held now, Kerry would have 280 electoral votes vs Bush's 248. These numbers do not reflect the second presidential debate, as most of the state surveys were complete or nearly so before the debate began.

A Gallup Poll of registered voters found that the second debate was close. 47% felt Kerry won, while 45% chose Bush (compared to 53% vs 37% for the first debate). Both candidates played well to their core voters: 83% of Republicans called it for Bush (up significantly from the first debate) and 87% of Democrats called it for Kerry. However, independents chose Kerry by a 16-point margin: 53% to 37%.

Based on these numbers, I think my initial impressions were right. Kerry picked up more undecided voters than Bush, while both candidates kept their core voters.

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